Daily notes on reversion-to-the-mean swing trading — setups, screens, trade reviews, and method. Price is the dog, value is the owner, and the leash is what keeps them together.https://dogonaleash.comen-ushttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/08/the-gap-down-filter-earned-its-keephttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/08/the-gap-down-filter-earned-its-keepThe single cheapest line in the screen is the one that throws out overnight gaps. Last week it excluded four names and every one of them kept going.Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:15:00 GMTSetupsscreensprocessriskhttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/08/vol-is-cheap-and-nobody-is-scaredhttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/08/vol-is-cheap-and-nobody-is-scaredImplied volatility is the one series in this business that reliably reverts. When it is cheap and the tape is calm, the structure of the trade should change before the thesis does.Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:00:00 GMTMarket Notesvolatilityregimeoptionshttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/08/the-dog-and-the-leashhttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/08/the-dog-and-the-leashWhy this site exists, and the one metaphor it keeps coming back to: price runs, value walks, and the distance between them is the only thing worth measuring.Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:30:00 GMTMethodfirst-principlesphilosophyhttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/08/the-trade-that-worked-for-the-wrong-reasonhttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/08/the-trade-that-worked-for-the-wrong-reasonClosed green, and the review grades it a loss. The thesis was reversion; what actually happened was a sector bid that had nothing to do with the setup.Thu, 13 Aug 2026 20:40:00 GMTTrade Reviewsreviewprocessriskhttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/08/what-mean-reversion-actually-meanshttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/08/what-mean-reversion-actually-means"It fell a lot, so it should bounce" is not mean reversion — it is hope with a chart attached. The real claim is about stationarity, and it is testable.Tue, 11 Aug 2026 10:50:00 GMTMethodfirst-principlesstatisticshttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/08/three-names-two-sigma-belowhttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/08/three-names-two-sigma-belowThe screen returned three candidates this morning. Two fail the anchor test on sight. Here is the reasoning on all three, including the ones I'm skipping.Thu, 06 Aug 2026 12:05:00 GMTWatchlistscreensprocesshttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/08/building-a-z-score-screenhttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/08/building-a-z-score-screenA naive oversold screen returns the week's worst headlines. Four filters turn it into a list of stretched prices — with the code and the reasoning for each.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:15:00 GMTMethodscreensstatisticsprocesshttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/07/breadth-is-narrowinghttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/07/breadth-is-narrowingThe index sits near its highs and the average stock inside it does not. That gap is where reversion candidates come from — and it is also how you get run over.Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:10:00 GMTMarket Notesbreadthregimehttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/07/three-ways-these-trades-diehttps://dogonaleash.com/2026/07/three-ways-these-trades-dieHigh win rates hide the shape of the loss. Here are the three failure modes, what each one looks like on the way in, and the sizing arithmetic that survives them.Tue, 28 Jul 2026 20:45:00 GMTMethodriskposition-sizingprocess