About
The dog and the leash
André Kostolany used to describe the market as a man walking his dog. The man walks a straight line down the street. The dog runs ahead, doubles back, stops at every tree — and covers three times the distance. Watch only the dog and the path looks random. Watch the leash and you know roughly where the dog will end up.
That is the premise of this site. Prices oscillate around something slower-moving: a fair value, a moving average, a spread between two related instruments. Reversion to the mean is the bet that when the leash is stretched unusually far, it pulls back.
The bet is not free money. The leash can be longer than you think, it can be attached to a moving owner, and occasionally it breaks. Most of what gets published here is about telling those cases apart.
What gets published
- Market Notes — the daily read. Breadth, volatility, and where the tape is stretched far enough to be worth a look.
- Setups — specific reversion setups, how each is constructed, and where it fails.
- Trade Reviews — entries and exits graded after the fact, including the losers.
- Method — screens, statistics, and position sizing.
- Watchlist — names on deck and what would take them off.
What does not
No alerts, no picks, no premium tier, no "join my Discord." If a method stops working, that gets written up too — a public notebook is only useful if the failures stay in it.
Who writes it
Sawick. An individual trader working a swing-trading book, operating on a simple loop: learn something, document it, share it. Not a registered investment adviser, not a broker, not managing anyone else's money.
How to read it
Every post carries a full timestamp, because in this business the time a thing was written is part of what it means. Where a position exists at the time of writing, it is disclosed in a box at the top of the post. Numbers are shown with their construction so you can find the flaw in them.
Getting in touch
Corrections are especially welcome — if a number here is wrong, say so: hello@dogonaleash.com. New notes go out over RSS.
Nothing on this site is investment advice. Read the full disclaimer.