Setups2 min read
The gap-down filter earned its keep
The single cheapest line in the screen is the one that throws out overnight gaps. Last week it excluded four names and every one of them kept going.
Tag
#process
5 posts tagged process.
Trade Reviews2 min read
The trade that worked for the wrong reason
Closed green, and the review grades it a loss. The thesis was reversion; what actually happened was a sector bid that had nothing to do with the setup.
Three names two sigma below, one worth a look
The screen returned three candidates this morning. Two fail the anchor test on sight. Here is the reasoning on all three, including the ones I'm skipping.
Method4 min read
Building a z-score screen that isn't just a bad-news detector
A naive oversold screen returns the week's worst headlines. Four filters turn it into a list of stretched prices — with the code and the reasoning for each.
Method4 min read
The three ways a mean-reversion trade dies
High win rates hide the shape of the loss. Here are the three failure modes, what each one looks like on the way in, and the sizing arithmetic that survives them.